Market Dashboard

PiranhaProfits Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard — November 2026

PiranhaProfits Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard

Three lenses · Recession risk · Market-peak froth · Price trend

As of: Friday 6 November 2026 close · Published Monday 9 Nov 2026

Prior edition: 2 October 2026

Next update: Monday 7 December 2026 (data to the Friday 4 Dec close)

Overall verdict: CONSTRUCTIVE / NEUTRAL — economy firm, froth contained, price trend weakening

Lens 1 (Recession): GREEN, the strongest of the last three editions: 6 green · 0 yellow · 1 red, from 4·2·1. October payrolls rose 165k with unemployment at 4.1%, and ISM manufacturing climbed to 55.5. The LEI's 6-month growth is positive again (+0.6%), and the curve is positive at +0.67pp. CAPE (38.9x) is the only red.

Lens 2 (Froth): 4 of 10 triggered = 40%, vs ~70% average at prior peaks. Value vs Growth un-triggered: value now leads growth by 22.4ppt over six months. Signal #10 now uses the BofA Fund Manager Survey cash rule instead of NAAIM, and it is triggered (3.9% cash). On last edition's method the count would be 30%. Also triggered: Rule of 20 (≈ 28.8), loose financial conditions (NFCI −0.459, but tightening every week in October) and record YTD deal and IPO activity.

Lens 3 (Trend): GREEN under the trend rule, but under strain. The S&P 500 closed at 7,376.86 on 6 Nov: 3.9% below its 50-day SMA, 1.7% below its 150-day and 5.7% below its 6 Oct closing high. The index fell 4.36% on 5 Nov, its largest one-day decline since April 2025; news reports attributed it to concerns over tighter AI regulation after the midterm elections. The 50-day is still 2.3% above the 150-day, so there is no bear trigger, but the 50-day has started to slope down (−0.2% over 20 sessions).

Macro backdrop: the Fed held rates at its 28 Oct meeting. ISM prices paid are 75.2, and September CPI was 3.7%. The October loan officer survey showed tighter standards for small firms and commercial property, while standards for large firms were unchanged.

Changes since the October edition (2 Oct 2026 baseline)

CONFIRMED FLIP — Conference Board LEI: YELLOW → GREEN. August LEI 99.5, 6-month growth −0.1% (released 18 Sep) → September LEI 99.6, 6-month growth +0.6% Mar–Sep (released 22 Oct).
CONFIRMED FLIP — Labour market: YELLOW → GREEN. September payrolls +29k, unemployment 4.2% (released 2 Oct) → October payrolls +165k, unemployment 4.1% (released 6 Nov). August and September were revised up by a combined 84k, putting the 3-month average at about +137k. Rule: GREEN when the 3-month payroll average is above 100k and unemployment is within 0.3pp of its 12-month low.
CONFIRMED FLIP — Value vs Growth (#14): TRIGGERED → NOT triggered. Growth led by 16.6ppt (wk of 30 Mar → 2 Oct). Value now leads by 22.4ppt (wk of 4 May → 6 Nov): RPV +8.6%, RPG −13.7%.
METHODOLOGY CHANGE — #10 Manager Bullishness: NAAIM → BofA Fund Manager Survey cash rule. Since 1 Aug, NAAIM's free data has been three months delayed, and NAAIM requires permission for commercial use. BofA's contrarian rule gives a sell signal when manager cash is at or below 4.0%; October cash is 3.9%, so the signal is TRIGGERED. This is a change of indicator, not a flip. It adds one trigger to Lens 2 (30% → 40%).
METHODOLOGY CHANGE — #3 Credit spreads: ICE BofA HY OAS → Federal Reserve GZ credit spread and excess bond premium. ICE's licence terms on FRED don't allow its spread data to be published to third parties without written approval. The replacement is credit-spread data published by the Federal Reserve Board itself. The state is GREEN under both measures, so the change doesn't affect the count.
No other flips. Curve, Sahm, ISM, CAPE, Consumer Confidence, AAII, forward P/E, Deal/IPO, Rule of 20, inverted curve, NFCI, SLOOS and the Lens-3 trend all hold their prior state.
Watch items (not flipped):
- The S&P 500 is below its 50-day and 150-day SMAs and has closed below its 50-day on 11 of the last 16 sessions. The 50-day has turned down. A bear trigger needs the 50-day to cross below the 150-day, which is now 172 points (2.3%) away.
- NFCI tightened every week in October, from −0.498 to −0.459.
- The October loan officer survey showed tighter standards for small-firm and commercial property loans.
- Anthropic's IPO: an amended S-1 was filed on 2 Nov with no price range yet, and press reports point to a debut before Thanksgiving.
Data notes:
- CAPE and trailing P/E come from Multpl (6 Nov close), because GuruFocus blocks automated retrieval. Multpl's CAPE runs slightly below GuruFocus's, so treat month-on-month changes as approximate.
- S&P 500 closes are from IBKR up to 30 Oct; the 2–6 Nov closes are from CNBC and Yahoo Finance. The 2 Nov close is calculated as the 3 Nov close minus its reported +27.52 change. The 6 Nov closes for RPV and RPG are from TradingView.
- NFCI history is re-estimated by the Chicago Fed every week. The 25 Sep figure published last edition (−0.548) has since been revised.
Pending, due before the next edition: October CPI (10 Nov; the Rule of 20 currently uses September), the November BofA fund manager survey (mid-November), October LEI (19 Nov), November Consumer Confidence (24 Nov) and the November jobs report (4 Dec).

Lens 1 — Recession Risk

GREEN benign · YELLOW watch · RED elevated

GREEN — 6 green · 0 yellow · 1 red

#	Signal	Latest reading (observation date)	Prior (2 Oct edition)	State	Source
1	Yield curve 10y–3m (T10Y3M)	+0.67pp (6 Nov 2026). 10y 4.84% (5 Nov). Flattening: +1.09 on 2 Oct, +0.78 on 30 Oct.	+1.09pp (2 Oct)	GREEN — not inverted	FRED T10Y3M · FRED DGS10
2	Sahm Rule (SAHMREALTIME)	0.00pp (Oct 2026, released 6 Nov). Sep 0.00, Aug −0.07. Trigger 0.50. Next release 4 Dec.	0.00 (Sep)	GREEN	FRED SAHMREALTIME
3	Corporate credit spread (Fed GZ spread / excess bond premium)	GZ spread 1.00%, EBP −0.27 (Oct 2026). September was 0.93% and −0.38. The excess bond premium is the part of corporate spreads not explained by default risk; below zero means risk appetite is above its historical average. The Fed model's 12-month recession probability is 11.9%. State rule: GREEN while EBP < 0.	ICE HY OAS (indicator replaced) — GREEN	GREEN	Federal Reserve Board — EBP data
4	ISM Manufacturing PMI	55.5 (Oct 2026, released 2 Nov), its 10th month of expansion. New Orders 55.5, Production 59.0 (highest since Nov 2021), Employment 52.4, Prices 75.2.	54.5 (Sep)	GREEN	ISM via PR Newswire
5	Conference Board LEI	99.6 (Sep 2026, released 22 Oct), unchanged m/m. 6-month growth +0.6% (Mar–Sep), vs −1.1% over the prior six months. October is due 19 Nov.	99.5 (Aug), 6-mo −0.1% — YELLOW	GREEN ▲ flipped	Conference Board
6	Labour market	Payrolls +165k, unemployment 4.1% (Oct 2026, released 6 Nov), well above the ~59k consensus. Aug and Sep were revised up a combined 84k (Sep now +60k); 3-month average ≈ +137k. AHE +3.1% y/y. Participation 61.9%. Long-term unemployed are 27.6% of the jobless, the highest share since late 2021.	+29k, 4.2% (Sep) — YELLOW	GREEN ▲ flipped	BLS Employment Situation
7	Shiller CAPE	38.91 (6 Nov 2026 close, Multpl). Long-run mean ≈ 17.5. Down from ~40 as prices fell, but still in the top few percent of history.	41.07 (1 Oct, GuruFocus)	RED — valuation	Multpl (Shiller data)

Lens 2 — Market-Peak Froth (public replicas)

TRIGGERED = euphoria / complacency typical of tops

4 / 10 TRIGGERED

40%

Prior-peak average ≈ 70% (red marker). October edition: 40% (4/10). On the October method (NAAIM in #10), this edition would be 30%.

#	Signal	Latest reading (observation date)	Prior (2 Oct edition)	Status	Source
8	Consumer Confidence (>110)	91.7 (Oct 2026, released 27 Oct), the first rise in four months. Present Situation 120.4, Expectations 72.6. November is due 24 Nov.	81.9 (Sep, since revised to 84.2)	NOT triggered	Conference Board
9	Retail Euphoria (AAII)	Bulls 34.1% / Neutral 17.5% / Bears 48.4%, spread −14.3pp (week ending 4 Nov 2026). Bears have been above their historical average for 39 consecutive weeks.	Bulls 34.6%, spread −11.9pp (wk to 30 Sep)	NOT triggered	AAII Sentiment Survey
10	Manager Bullishness (BofA FMS cash ≤ 4.0%)	3.9% average fund-manager cash (October 2026 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted 2–8 Oct, published 13 Oct), unchanged from September. August was 3.5%. VERIFICATION: 1 of 2 October is confirmed by one qualifying report (Mace News); September's 3.9% is confirmed by two (Investing.com, Mace News). The signal is triggered on either month. The November survey is due mid-November.	NAAIM 79.7 (29 Jul) — NOT triggered (indicator replaced)	TRIGGERED	BofA Global Research FMS, via Mace News (Oct) · Investing.com (Sep)
11	Growth-Expectation Froth (fwd P/E > ~80th pct)	17.7x forward 12-m P/E (FactSet, 6 Nov 2026), below the 10-yr (19.1) and 5-yr (19.8) averages. Q3 blended EPS growth is 31.4%.	19.0x (2 Oct)	NOT triggered	FactSet
12	Deal & IPO Froth	Record YTD; a record-size IPO is in the pipeline. IPOs YTD: 119 deals, $148.3bn (+346% y/y). Anthropic filed an amended S-1 on 2 Nov with no price range yet. Press reports point to a roadshow from the week of 9 Nov and a debut before Thanksgiving. M&A 9M26: $4.44tn globally (+27% y/y). Q3 IPO activity itself was quieter: 30 deals, $32.8bn, or $6.2bn excluding SK hynix.	Record YTD, cooling in Q3	TRIGGERED	Renaissance Capital · Mergermarket 9M26
13	Rule of 20 (trailing P/E + CPI)	≈ 28.8 = trailing P/E 25.14 (Multpl, 6 Nov 2026 close) + CPI 3.7% y/y (Sep 2026, released 14 Oct). Well above 20. October CPI is due 10 Nov.	≈ 29.3	TRIGGERED	Multpl P/E · BLS CPI via CNBC
14	Value vs Growth, 6-month (RPV vs RPG)	Value +22.4ppt vs growth (RPV +8.6%, RPG −13.7%), from the week of 4 May (8 May close) to 6 Nov 2026. There is no growth leadership, so the 2.5ppt trigger isn't met. Starting one week earlier gives +18.1ppt.	−16.6ppt — TRIGGERED	NOT triggered ▼ flipped	IBKR weekly closes (start) · TradingView (6 Nov close)
15	Inverted yield curve (prior 6 months)	No inversion in the window. T10Y3M +0.67pp (6 Nov 2026).	Not inverted	NOT triggered	FRED T10Y3M
16	Credit Complacency (NFCI < 0)	−0.459 (week ending 30 Oct 2026, released 4 Nov). It tightened every week in October: −0.498 → −0.487 → −0.477 → −0.467 → −0.459. Still below 0. Next release 12 Nov.	−0.548 (25 Sep, as published then)	TRIGGERED	FRED NFCI
17	Tightening Credit (SLOOS)	C&I standards for large and mid-size firms basically unchanged (Q3, October 2026 survey, released 2 Nov). Standards tightened modestly for small firms and for commercial real estate. Not a broad-based tightening.	Basically unchanged (July survey)	NOT triggered	Federal Reserve SLOOS (Oct 2026)

Counting: #10, #12, #13 and #16 are triggered, so 4/10 = 40%. On the October method (NAAIM in #10, not triggered) it would be 3/10 = 30%. Either way it is well below the ~70% prior-peak average.

Lens 3 — Price Trend (S&P 500, 50-day vs 150-day SMA)

BEAR TRIGGER (RED) = 50-day below 150-day AND both flat/declining

GREEN — NO BEAR TRIGGER · PRICE BELOW 50- & 150-DAY · 50-DAY TURNING DOWN

#	Measure	Value (6 Nov 2026 close)	20 trading days earlier (9 Oct)	Slope / position
18	S&P 500 index level	7,376.86	7,811.54	−4.5% vs the 2 Oct edition and −5.7% from the 6 Oct closing high (7,818.93). It is 3.9% below the 50-day, 1.7% below the 150-day and 0.7% above the 200-day.
	50-day SMA	7,679.4	7,696.9	Turning down (−0.2%)
	150-day SMA	7,507.5	7,366.7	Rising (+1.9%)
	200-day SMA	7,325.1	7,250.6	Rising (+1.0%)
	50-day vs 150-day	The 50-day is still ABOVE the 150-day by 172 points (+2.3%, from +4.4% in the October edition). The 150-day is still rising, so there is no bear trigger. The index has closed below its 50-day on 11 of the last 16 sessions, and below its 150-day on 5 and 6 Nov.

Sources: IBKR daily closes for the S&P 500 (CBOE:SPX) from 3 Nov 2025 to 30 Oct 2026; 2–6 Nov 2026 closes from CNBC and Yahoo Finance (the 2 Nov close is calculated from the 3 Nov close and its reported change). SMAs are computed on closing prices. Integrity check: the 2 Oct SMAs recomputed from this series (7,657.6 / 7,334.5 / 7,225.8) match the October edition exactly.

Glossary

Yield curve (10y–3m): 10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month bill yield. Negative ("inverted") has preceded every US recession since the 1960s, typically by 6–18 months.
Sahm Rule: 3-month average unemployment rate minus its 12-month low. A rise of 0.50pp has historically marked the start of a recession.
GZ credit spread / EBP: Federal Reserve Board measures of US corporate bond spreads (Gilchrist–Zakrajšek). The excess bond premium (EBP) is the part of spreads not explained by expected defaults. Below zero = strong risk appetite; sharp rises have historically preceded recessions.
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Purchasing managers' survey. Above 50 = factory sector expanding; below 50 = contracting.
LEI: Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of 10 forward-looking indicators. Its 6-month growth rate is the key recession filter.
CAPE: Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E: price divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. Measures long-run valuation, not timing.
Consumer Confidence: Conference Board survey; readings above ~110 have coincided with late-cycle exuberance.
AAII: Weekly survey of individual investors (bullish / neutral / bearish %). Extremes are contrarian signals.
BofA FMS Cash Rule: Bank of America's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey of institutional managers. When average cash falls to 4.0% or below, BofA treats it as a contrarian "sell" signal (managers fully invested). The survey is BofA's proprietary research; headline figures are taken from published press reports.
Forward P/E: S&P 500 price divided by next-12-month consensus EPS (FactSet).
Rule of 20: Trailing P/E plus CPI inflation. Roughly 20 = fair; well above = expensive.
Value vs Growth: 6-month relative performance of pure value (RPV) vs pure growth (RPG). Strong growth leadership is typical of late-cycle froth.
NFCI: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Negative = looser-than-average conditions.
SLOOS: Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (quarterly). Net % of banks tightening loan standards.
Death cross: Shorter moving average crossing below a longer one (here 50-day below 150-day) with both flat/falling — the Lens-3 bear trigger.
STALE: The latest scheduled reading has not been published; the last published value and its date are shown instead. No values are estimated.