PiranhaProfits Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard
Three lenses · Recession risk · Market-peak froth · Price trend
As of: 3 September 2026 (refreshed 4 Sep 2026, pre-market)
Prior baseline: 5 August 2026
Overall verdict: CONSTRUCTIVE / NEUTRAL — no recession signal, no top signal, uptrend intact
Lens 1 (Recession): GREEN overall. Curve positive (+0.87pp), Sahm −0.03, HY spreads very tight (2.66%), ISM 54.6 (8th month of expansion), LEI 6-month growth turned positive. Watch items: labour (July payrolls −23k, unemployment 4.1%; August print due 4 Sep) and CAPE 40.8x (second-highest ever) remain the two non-green cells.
Lens 2 (Froth): 4 of 10 triggered = 40% vs ~70% average at prior peaks (50% if the stale NAAIM reading is counted as triggered). Retail and consumer sentiment are nowhere near euphoric; the froth that exists is in deal/IPO activity, valuation (Rule of 20 ≈ 32.6) and loose financial conditions.
Lens 3 (Trend): GREEN. S&P 500 7,747.71 (3 Sep close). 50-day SMA 7,584 is above the 150-day SMA 7,231 and both are rising. No death cross.
Signal flips since last month (5 Aug 2026 baseline)
- CONFIRMED FLIP — Conference Board LEI: YELLOW → GREEN. June LEI 99.1 (6-mo growth −1.3%, released 21 Jul 2026) → July LEI 99.5, +0.2% m/m, 6-month growth +0.2% (released 20 Aug 2026) — first positive 6-month growth rate in more than four years. Both dated readings from The Conference Board.
- STATE CHANGE, NOT A CONFIRMED FLIP — Value vs Growth (6-mo): "eased" → TRIGGERED. Last month's "value leading" read came from a YTD press summary; this month uses the specified RPV-vs-RPG proxy (IBKR weekly closes). On that proxy value trailed growth by −6.7ppt over the 6 months to 3 Sep 2026 and by −11.9ppt over the 6 months to 7 Aug 2026 — i.e. the signal was already triggered on a consistent basis. Change of measurement, not a change of market state.
- No other flips. Curve, Sahm, HY OAS, ISM, CAPE, Consumer Confidence, AAII, forward P/E, Deal/IPO, Rule of 20, NFCI, SLOOS and the Lens-3 trend all hold their prior state. No death cross.
- Stale this run: NAAIM (last public print 29 Jul 2026 — index moved behind a paywall 1 Aug 2026), SLOOS (quarterly; July 2026 survey covering Q2), labour market (August jobs report releases 4 Sep 08:30 ET, after this refresh), S&P forward P/E 10-yr percentile (not published by FactSet — level used instead).
Lens 1 — Recession Risk
GREEN benign · YELLOW watch · RED elevated
| # | Signal | Latest reading (observation date) | Prior (5 Aug) | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yield curve 10y–3m (T10Y3M) | +0.87pp (2 Sep 2026). 10y ≈ 4.77%, 3m ≈ 3.92%. Positive, steepening slightly (+0.83 on 27 Aug). | ≈ +1.0pp | GREEN — not inverted | FRED T10Y3M |
| 2 | Sahm Rule (SAHMREALTIME) | −0.03pp (Jul 2026, released 7 Aug). Jun 0.07, May 0.10, Apr 0.13. Trigger 0.50. Next release 4 Sep. | 0.07 (Jun) — Aug dashboard showed ~0.20, which was the March value | GREEN | FRED SAHMREALTIME |
| 3 | HY OAS (BAMLH0A0HYM2) | 2.66% (2 Sep 2026). 2.60–2.66 range last week. Very tight = no credit stress, but complacent. | ≈ 2.81% | GREEN (tight) | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| 4 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 (Aug 2026, released 1 Sep). New Orders 53.7, Production 58.3, Employment 51.2. 8th straight month > 50. | 55.6 (Jul) | GREEN | ISM via PR Newswire |
| 5 | Conference Board LEI | 99.5 (Jul 2026, released 20 Aug), +0.2% m/m; June revised to −0.1%. 6-month growth +0.2% (Jan–Jul) vs −1.3% prior six months. | 99.1 (Jun), 6-mo negative — YELLOW | GREEN ▲ flipped | Conference Board |
| 6 | Labour market | Payrolls −23k, unemployment 4.1% (Jul 2026, released 7 Aug). May/Jun revised down by 103k combined (Jun now +20k). AHE +3.2% y/y. STALE — Aug report due 4 Sep 08:30 ET | +57k, 4.2% (Jun) | YELLOW — softening | BLS Employment Situation (Jul 2026) |
| 7 | Shiller CAPE | 40.77 (1 Sep 2026). Long-run mean ≈ 17; second-highest reading on record after Dec 1999 (44.2). | ≈ 42 | RED — valuation | GuruFocus (Shiller data) |
Lens 2 — Market-Peak Froth (public replicas)
TRIGGERED = euphoria / complacency typical of tops
40%
Prior-peak average ≈ 70% (red marker). Last month: 30% (3/10). If stale NAAIM is counted as triggered: 50%.
| # | Signal | Latest reading (observation date) | Prior (5 Aug) | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Consumer Confidence (>110) | 89.4 (Aug 2026, released 25 Aug). Weakest since January; Expectations 68.2 (<80 recession-associated), Present Situation 121.2. | 90.2 (Jul, revised from 90.8) | NOT triggered | Conference Board |
| 9 | Retail Euphoria (AAII) | Bulls 39.7% / Bears 37.6% / Neutral 22.7%, spread +2.1pp (week ending 2 Sep 2026). Bulls were below the 37.5% average for the prior 6 weeks (32.9% wk of 26 Aug). | Bearish; spread negative | NOT triggered | AAII Sentiment Survey |
| 10 | Manager Bullishness (NAAIM ≥ ~90) | 79.70 (29 Jul 2026 — last public print). STALE Index moved to subscription access 1 Aug 2026; public page now runs on a 3-month delay. An undated newsletter mention suggests exposure rose to ~fully invested by 28 Aug — unverified, not used. | 79.7 (29 Jul) | NOT triggered (unconfirmed) | CEIC (NAAIM) · NAAIM |
| 11 | Growth-Expectation Froth (fwd P/E > ~80th pct) | 19.6x forward 12-m P/E (FactSet, 28 Aug 2026). Below 5-yr avg 19.9, above 10-yr avg 19.0. 10-yr percentile not published; a reading roughly at the 10-yr average cannot sit in the top quintile. | 19.6x (7 Aug: 20.0x) | NOT triggered | FactSet Earnings Insight |
| 12 | Deal & IPO Froth | Record. Q2 2026: 48 IPOs raised $104.8bn (SpaceX $75bn — largest ever); 106 IPOs YTD through early Sep. Americas M&A H1 2026 $1.95tn, value +59.6% y/y on megadeals (39 deals ≥ $5bn through May). | Record H1 IPO proceeds — triggered | TRIGGERED | Renaissance Capital · Mergermarket |
| 13 | Rule of 20 (trailing P/E + CPI) | ≈ 32.6 = trailing P/E 29.2 (2 Sep 2026) + CPI 3.4% y/y (Jul 2026, released 12 Aug). Well above 20. | ≈ 29.6 | TRIGGERED | GuruFocus P/E · BLS CPI |
| 14 | Value vs Growth, 6-month (RPV vs RPG) | Value −6.7ppt vs growth (RPV +13.0%, RPG +19.7%, wk of 2 Mar → 3 Sep 2026, IBKR weekly closes). Growth leadership > 2.5ppt threshold. Caveat: broad-index YTD press reads still show value ahead for calendar 2026; the pure-style proxy shows growth reasserting since March. | "Value leading / eased" (press YTD basis). Same RPV/RPG proxy for wk 2 Feb → 7 Aug: −11.9ppt (already triggered) | TRIGGERED (basis change, not confirmed flip) | IBKR price history RPV / RPG (weekly, 3 Sep 2026) |
| 15 | Inverted yield curve (prior 6 months) | No inversion in the window. T10Y3M +0.87pp (2 Sep 2026); positive throughout Mar–Sep 2026 per FRED daily series. | Not inverted | NOT triggered | FRED T10Y3M |
| 16 | Credit Complacency (NFCI < 0) | −0.558 (week ending 28 Aug 2026, released 2 Sep). Loosest of the past five weeks (−0.544 on 31 Jul). Next release 10 Sep. | −0.538 | TRIGGERED | FRED NFCI |
| 17 | Tightening Credit (SLOOS) | Basically unchanged C&I standards for firms of all sizes in Q2 2026 (domestic banks); modest net tightening at foreign banks only; stronger C&I demand from large/mid firms. STALE — quarterly; July 2026 survey (responses due 2 Jul). Next: Oct/Nov 2026 | Same survey | NOT triggered | Federal Reserve SLOOS Jul 2026 |
Counting: #12, #13, #14, #16 triggered = 4/10 = 40%. NAAIM (#10) counted as NOT triggered on its last published value (79.7 < 90); if the unverified late-August "fully invested" mention were confirmed, the count would be 5/10 = 50%. Either way well below the ~70% prior-peak average.
Lens 3 — Price Trend (S&P 500, 50-day vs 150-day SMA)
BEAR TRIGGER (RED) = 50-day below 150-day AND both flat/declining
| # | Measure | Value (3 Sep 2026 close) | 20 trading days earlier (5 Aug) | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | S&P 500 index level | 7,747.71 | 7,723.55 | Above all three averages; ~0.7% below the 12 Aug closing high of 7,798.99 |
| 50-day SMA | 7,584.5 | 7,485.7 | Rising (+1.3%) | |
| 150-day SMA | 7,231.3 | 7,121.0 | Rising (+1.5%) | |
| 200-day SMA | 7,136.5 | 7,039.7 | Rising (+1.4%) | |
| 50-day vs 150-day | 50-day is ABOVE the 150-day by 353 points (+4.9%) and both slopes are positive → no bear trigger. Index has closed above its 50-day SMA continuously since the late-July pullback. | |||
Source: IBKR daily closes for the S&P 500 index (CBOE:SPX), 259 sessions to 3 Sep 2026; SMAs computed on closing prices. Cross-check: a second feed (TradingView technicals, 1 Sep 2026) shows the 50-day SMA at 7,570.7, consistent with 7,584.5 two sessions later. Note the August dashboard's 150-/200-day values (~7,470) were flagged as estimates and were too high — the index traded 6,300–7,000 through Q1 2026, so the true 150-/200-day averages sit ~7,100–7,250. This does not change the August or September verdict (50 > 150 in both months).
Glossary
- Yield curve (10y–3m)
- 10-year Treasury yield minus 3-month bill yield. Negative ("inverted") has preceded every US recession since the 1960s, typically by 6–18 months.
- Sahm Rule
- 3-month average unemployment rate minus its 12-month low. A rise of 0.50pp has historically marked the start of a recession.
- HY OAS
- Option-adjusted spread of US high-yield bonds over Treasuries. Widening = credit stress; very tight = complacency.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Purchasing managers' survey. Above 50 = factory sector expanding; below 50 = contracting.
- LEI
- Conference Board Leading Economic Index, a composite of 10 forward-looking indicators. Its 6-month growth rate is the key recession filter.
- CAPE
- Shiller cyclically-adjusted P/E: price divided by 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. Measures long-run valuation, not timing.
- Consumer Confidence
- Conference Board survey; readings above ~110 have coincided with late-cycle exuberance.
- AAII / NAAIM
- Weekly surveys of retail investors (AAII bull %) and active managers (NAAIM average equity exposure). Extremes are contrarian signals.
- Forward P/E
- S&P 500 price divided by next-12-month consensus EPS (FactSet).
- Rule of 20
- Trailing P/E plus CPI inflation. Roughly 20 = fair; well above = expensive.
- Value vs Growth
- 6-month relative performance of pure value (RPV) vs pure growth (RPG). Strong growth leadership is typical of late-cycle froth.
- NFCI
- Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. Negative = looser-than-average conditions.
- SLOOS
- Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (quarterly). Net % of banks tightening loan standards.
- Death cross
- Shorter moving average crossing below a longer one (here 50-day below 150-day) with both flat/falling — the Lens-3 bear trigger.
- STALE
- The latest scheduled reading has not been published; the last published value and its date are shown instead. No values are estimated.