PiranhaProfits Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard
Recession & Market-Peak Dashboard
Three lenses on bear-market risk: recession risk (is the economy turning?), market-peak froth (is the market priced like a top?), and price trend (is the market actually rolling over?).
Readings as of late June 2026 · Latest official data May–Jun 2026
Overall read — froth is high, but the economy and the trend are not confirming
● Economy calm · Market frothy · Uptrend intact — stay invested, stay disciplinedPeak-like positioning, but no recession and no trend break. The classic "late-cycle, not end-of-cycle" setup.
Lens 1 — Recession risk: GREEN. Yield curve, Sahm Rule, credit spreads, ISM and the LEI are benign to improving. No downturn signalled within 12 months.
Lens 2 — Market-peak froth: ELEVATED (~65–70% of signals triggered). Built entirely from public data — managers all-in, valuations rich, deal-making at records — at levels typically seen near market tops.
Lens 3 — Price trend: GREEN. The S&P is above rising moving averages; no death cross. This is your act trigger — froth alone rarely ends a bull, but a trend break alongside high froth is the historic sell signal.
Lens 1 · Recession-risk dashboard
Leading & coincident indicators of an economic downturn.
Benign / no signal
Watch / mixed
Elevated risk
Yield Curve (10yr – 3mo)
Best-documented predictor — inverted before every U.S. recession since the 1960s, ~12–18mo lead.
+0.62%
Normalized
Sahm Rule (jobs momentum)
Fires when 3-mo avg unemployment rises 0.5pt off its 12-mo low. Caught every recession start since 1970.
~0.27
Trigger 0.50
High-Yield Credit Spreads (HY OAS)
Cleanest market stress gauge; blows out into downturns. So tight now it borders on complacency.
~2.7%
Historically tight
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Below 50 = contraction. Now expanding a 5th straight month — highest since 2022.
54.0
Expansion
Conference Board LEI
Built to lead the cycle. Up 0.1% in May (2nd rise); 6-mo trend still mildly negative but improving.
99.3
Improving
Labor Market (unemployment / payrolls)
Solid headline (+172k jobs, 4.3%) but internals softening: long-term unemployed +524k YoY.
4.3%
Cooling beneath
Valuation (Shiller CAPE)
Not a timing tool — predicts weak long-run returns. Near dot-com territory; ~23% above average.
~40
Stretched
Lens 2 · Market-peak froth — public-data gauges
Built from free public data. A signal is triggered when it shows the euphoria or complacency typical of market tops.
Consumer Confidence > 110
Conference Board confidence index
93.1 (May)
○ Not yet
Retail Euphoria
AAII bull–bear sentiment survey
44.9% bulls
● Triggered
Manager Bullishness
NAAIM active-manager equity exposure
98.6 — all-in
● Triggered
Growth-Expectation Froth
S&P 500 forward P/E percentile
~22× · 90th pct
● Triggered
Deal & IPO Froth
M&A + IPO issuance volume
Record H1
● Triggered
Rule of 20 (P/E + CPI)
Trailing P/E + YoY inflation
well > 20
● Triggered
Value vs Growth (6m)
Value vs growth leadership (RPV–RPG)
Value +11% YTD
○ Eased
Inverted Yield Curve
10yr–3mo Treasury spread (FRED)
+0.62%
○ Not yet
Credit Complacency
Chicago Fed NFCI financial conditions
−0.51 (loose)
● Triggered
Tightening Credit (SLOOS)
Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey
net tightening
◐ Watch
Two readings to interpret carefully: the manager-exposure leg (NAAIM 98.6) runs hot, while broader strategist positioning is less extreme — different crowds. And Value vs Growth has eased as value retook market leadership in 2026, switching that froth signal off. Net effect: roughly 65–70% of the peak signals are lit — elevated, but not the 80–90% seen at the most extreme tops.
Lens 3 · Price-trend technical
A trend-confirmation gauge — the signal that historically tells you a bear is actually underway, not just feared.
50-day vs 150-day SMA (S&P 500 · daily candles)
Bear trigger: on the daily timeframe, the 50-day SMA crosses below the 150-day SMA and both flatten or slope down. Today the 50-day sits well above the 150-day (both above the rising 200-day ≈ 6,894), and both are sloping up. S&P ≈ 7,365 — no death cross, ~1 year above its averages.
50 > 150
Uptrend ↑
Glossary · what each signal means
Plain-English definitions for sharing with the community.
Lens 1 — Recession risk
Yield Curve (10yr – 3mo)
The gap between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. When it goes negative ("inverts"), short rates sit above long rates — a pattern that has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, usually by 12–18 months.
Sahm Rule
Triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises half a point above its low of the past year. It flags the start of a recession in real time rather than predicting one early.
High-Yield Credit Spreads (HY OAS)
The extra yield investors demand to hold risky "junk" bonds instead of Treasuries. Widening spreads = rising fear of defaults/stress; very tight spreads = complacency.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
A monthly survey of factory purchasing managers. Above 50 means manufacturing is expanding; below 50, contracting. Sustained readings under ~48 have preceded recessions.
Conference Board LEI
A composite of ten forward-looking inputs (orders, hours, building permits, etc.) designed to turn down several months before the economy does.
Labor Market
The unemployment rate and monthly job growth. These lag the cycle, but confirm a downturn once it's underway — watch the trend in the internals, not just the headline.
Shiller CAPE
Price divided by the 10-year inflation-adjusted average of earnings. A high reading means an expensive market and weak long-run returns — but it does not time tops; markets stay expensive for years.
Lens 2 — Market-peak froth
Consumer Confidence > 110
The Conference Board's confidence index. Readings above 110 reflect the household optimism often seen near market tops.
Retail Euphoria (AAII)
The share of individual investors who are bullish minus bearish in the weekly AAII survey. Extreme bullishness is a contrarian warning — when everyone's optimistic, the buyers are already in.
Manager Bullishness (NAAIM)
Active money managers' actual equity exposure on a 0–100+ scale. Near 100 means they're "all-in" with little cash left to add — a sign of crowded positioning.
Growth-Expectation Froth (Forward P/E)
How many dollars investors pay for each dollar of expected earnings. A high historical percentile means a lot of optimism is already priced in.
Deal & IPO Froth
The volume of mergers, acquisitions and new stock listings. Deal booms cluster at tops, when cheap financing and high confidence embolden dealmakers.
Rule of 20 (P/E + CPI)
A quick fair-value check: trailing P/E plus the inflation rate. A sum above 20 has historically signalled an overvalued market.
Value vs Growth (6-month)
When expensive "growth" stocks lead cheap "value" stocks, it signals late-cycle speculation. When value leads (as in 2026), the speculative froth in this signal eases.
Inverted Yield Curve
The same yield-curve measure as Lens 1, included here because an inversion is also a classic macro signpost on the way to a market peak.
Credit Complacency (NFCI)
The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index. Negative = looser-than-average conditions = the complacency that often precedes turns.
Tightening Credit (SLOOS)
The Fed's quarterly survey of bank loan officers. A rising net share tightening lending standards means credit is getting harder to get — a headwind for growth.
Lens 3 — Price trend
50-day vs 150-day SMA (daily candles)
Compares the average daily closing price of the S&P 500 over the last 50 trading days vs the last 150 — measured on the daily candle timeframe. A genuine bear signal needs the faster (50-day) line to cross below the slower (150-day) line and both lines to flatten or turn down — confirming a real trend change rather than a brief dip. Until that happens, the uptrend is intact.